Stop checking your inbox for at least a few weeks for any presidential announcements from candidates. They’re all still “exploring” their options.
Tom Rath, a New Hampshire Republican strategist who advised Mitt Romney and George W. Bush but is uncommitted, said it all comes down to money.
“No one will announce until after April 1st to avoid disclosing first quarter campaign finance reporting,” Rath said. “If you are a candidate you have to file the report. They want to avoid that news story about how much money they have raised so far.”
The well-stocked campaigns like Jeb Bush’s are even downplaying fundraising predictions. The Bush team is trying to lower expectations regarding that $100 million goal for March that had been floated around. Could it be he didn’t hit the mark? Otherwise he would have officially announced his candidacy this month and would be proud to disclose his campaign account.
The next filing isn’t until July.
U.S. senator and possible presidential hopeful Lindsey Graham joined Boston Herald’s “Morning Meeting” yesterday and said he would make his decision on an announcement around May. Hillary Clinton is expected to announce sometime in April.
While supporters — and reporters — will be blissfully unaware of fundraising totals, presidential candidates can use the news cycle and polling to pad their campaign accounts.
Bush certainly has locked down several wealthy Republicans. However, there is still a huge pool of supporters he can target.
Bush can use Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker’s recent lead in the polls as a way to fundraise. Bush will be able to cash in on those smaller donors and scare them into opening up their wallets to help him prepare for primary season.
Even though everyone knows Bush is the elephant in the room, it is an old trick to use these early polling numbers to gin up his supporters into opening their wallets.
“Ignore the polls they don’t mean anything,” Rath says. “It is a flavor of the month right now. Just because someone is up 2 or 3 points in the polls has no significance as to how they will end up in the end.”
Rath might be right, but polls and money drive media coverage and candidates covet both — along with votes.
Jaclyn Cashman co-hosts “Morning Meeting” from 9 a.m. to noon on Boston Herald Radio. Follow her on Twitter @JaclynCashman.
